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For the most part, our pre-season middle infield studs have performed similarly to how we expected them to perform. Hanley Ramirez is on fire over the last month with 11 home runs (20 total), Jose Reyes leads all MLB middle infielders with 28 stolen bases, and Chase Utley leads all of MLB with 23 home runs. These were all solid 1st round fantasy baseball pickups.

However, it’s not just the household names that have shined at the MI position, especially over the past month. There are some veteran players and some newcomers who are causing fantasy GM’s to take note.

Orlando Cabrera | Chicago White Sox - Cabrera, over the last month, is batting .336 with 17 runs scored, 3 home runs, 18 RBI, and 3 stolen bases. He’s doubled his home run total for the season in June alone, and his 18 RBI in June are twice what he posted in May and 54% of his season total. Ride Cabrera while he’s hot, but be wary of his batting average spike as it might be aided by a 35% hit rate in the month if June. If his hit rate comes down, expect his batting average to as well. But, if his new power sticks around, Cabrera could still be valuable.

Alexi Casilla | Minnesota Twins - Casilla made it to the big leagues on his speed. He’s averaged 33.6 stolen bases over the last 5 seasons (MLB & MiLB combined) and had 49 in 2005 and 50 in 2006. However, in his 2007 stint for the Twins, his .222 batting average over 189 at-bats left a sour taste in the mouths of the Twins front office. 2008 has turned out differently. In 156 at-bats this season, Casilla is batting .327 with 25 runs scored, 4 home runs, 31 RBI, and 4 stolen bases. He is even 5th on the Twins in RBI, even though he’s only played in half of his teams’ games. If Casilla can keep the average up, and the RBI’s flowing, he’ll remain valuable to fantasy owners. If he starts getting the green light more on the base paths and his stolen base totals increase like we’ve seen in his minor league career, he pushes his way towards the upper tier of middle infielders.

Mike Aviles | Kansas City Royals - Aviles, a 7th round pick in the 2003 draft, is making the most of his call-up and rookie season for the Royals. He’s batting .303/.333/.505 with 17 runs scored, 3 home runs, 15 RBI and 2 stolen bases in 99 at-bats. Aviles was called up in May after hitting .336 with 10 home runs in 51 games at AAA Omaha. He also hit 17 home runs last season at Omaha in 133 games while hitting .296. His 33% hit rate so far in Kansas City is right in line with MiLB numbers, but there isn’t enough data to determine whether or not his hit rate will effect his batting average. Even though we might not have enough data yet, Aviles has entrenched himself as the Royals leadoff hitter, and should easily have a spot in AL-only and most mixed leagues, as well.

I’ve got a column debuting today at Fantasy Phenoms. This week and next I’ll be compiling an All-Star team of the unluckiest players in baseball.

This week I reveal the hitters. Enjoy.

According to the Longview News-Journal, 22-year-old Rangers’ 1B Chris Davis has been called up to the majors.  Although he doesn’t have Jay Bruce’s hype, he may have a bat that’s equally capable of serious impact in the bigs.  Here’s a look at Davis’ numbers over the last two seasons:

Davis boasts more raw power than anyone in the minors, and has improved his approach (and results) as he moved up each level. I’m very excited about this kid.

In keeper leagues, now’s the time to grab Davis if he isn’t already someone else’s property.  He’ll probably struggle a bit at first, as he’s likely to have some trouble with strikeouts in the bigs, but he also tends to learn new levels very quickly after a short adjustment period.  Unfortunately, that means it’s not that likely he’ll set the league on fire right away while Hank Blalock is recovering these next few weeks.  That might mean a trip back to AAA when Blalock returns.  That said, I also wouldn’t be surprised if Texas benches or trades Blalock or Catalanotto sometime soon in order to open up this C/DH/1B logjam they’ve got with Davis, Max Ramirez, Salty, and Smoak all looking like future impact players.

For fun I’ve compiled a projection (based on his BB:K and ball-in-play numbers) for what I think Davis can do if he plays full-time the rest of the year, assuming 275 ABs:
.265/.317/.513 14DB 18HR 20:70BB:K
The Runs and RBI will depend on where he’s likely to bat in the order, but he’s got the bat to drive in a lot of runs.  This projection assumes a LD% of 20%, a FB% of 43%, and a HR/F of 20%–all good numbers, but significant drops from where he’s at in the minors this year.  Also, I hear the Ballpark in Arlington is a pretty fun place for lefty sluggers to hit.

Obviously I think Davis is going to be a pretty good power hitter, and if he can improve his plate discipline the way he has throughout his minor league career, he could be a great one.  There aren’t many opportunities to move on a fantasy player with this kind of upside, so don’t be slow about picking him up.  If there’s a young 1B in the league with Prince Fielder’s upside, Chris Davis is it.

One of my favorite strategies in fantasy baseball is to go after former top prospects who have had a rough go of things early in their careers.  With the fantasy game evolving to integrate minor league rosters and dynasty/keeper league styles, the focus on youth by fantasy GMs has exploded in recent years.  As a result, the value these GMs put on “the next big thing” can be huge:  Those who have attempted to deal for Jay Bruce or Clayton Kershaw without giving up a top-50 player know what I’m talking about.  On the flipside, when a young stud comes up and bombs, it’s amazing how quickly owners will abandon him to move on to the next shiny prospect.

Let’s take a look at some former top-prospect pitchers and their numbers from 2008.  Some of these guys you’ll still be able to acquire at a good value, thanks to their past struggles.  Others may provide an opportunity to move while they are still appealing to another bargain-hungry GM.

Gavin Floyd - Since entering the league in 2004, the former BA Top-10 prospect has struggled mightily.  This year, however, his 3.19ERA and 1.10WHIP over 90.1IP are making this look like a breakout season for the 25-year-old.  If you’ve got this guy, then you’re the envy of your keeper leaguemates.  Or so you hope.

Floyd’s allowing a miniscule 12.8% LD% this year, resulting in that incredibly low BABIP.  A pitchers’ opponent LD% and BABIP are not repeatable skills, they are luck-based, primarily.  This is not sustainable.
Verdict: Cash in on Floyd before he hits the mother of all corrections.

Zack Greinke - After dropping a 3.97ERA and 1.17WHIP on the major leagues at age 21, Greinke was seen by many as a future ace.  Most of us know his backstory of mental issues by now, so suffice it to say he hasn’t come through on those projections.  After a spectacular April, he’s struggled a bit in May and June.

Looking at xFIP, it would seem Greinke’s been lucky with his 3.40ERA.  However, his control is good, and he’s striking guys out at a decent clip.   He’s also averaging over 6.6IP a start, which helps in the Win dept.  Despite the slight flyball tendencies, there’s a lot to like.
Verdict: Greinke’s not coming cheaply if you don’t have him, but I wouldn’t sell high either.

Edwin Jackson - Another guy who broke into the majors early, Edwin has struggled since his debut at 20 years old.  After suffering through years of arm problems and inconsistency, he’s looking like a league-average starter for the first time.

The one thing Edwin has going for him is a power sinker.  He’ll always keep the ball on the ground well, but there really haven’t been any signs of improvement in his numbers.  He’s missing fewer bats than ever, without much improvement in control.
Verdict: Hold.  He doesn’t have Floyd’s gaudy numbers, so he’s probably worth more to you than you’ll get in trade.  Watch the K:BB for improvement.

Andrew Miller - The #6 pick in the 2006 draft was expected to move quickly to the majors, and do well once he got there.  The first part happened, but Miller has struggled since he hit the bigs.

I’m excited about Miller as a buy-low opportunity.  He’s been inconsistent this year, but his xFIP shows that his 5.07ERA has been a lot of bad luck.  He has also been getting more ground balls lately, and is showing improvement over last year in every category–even though his WHIP and ERA make him look like a bust.
Verdict: Buy if you can.  Control may be an issue for a while, but he’s a Brandon Webb clone.

Mike Pelfrey - Pelfrey’s fastball has always landed him high on prospect lists, and in the minds of fantasy GMs.  His poor control and lack of any decent secondary offerings have limited him so far.  However, there are still fans out there for what Pelfrey’s bringing.

I am not one of those fans.  Pelfrey’s groundball tendencies are encouraging, but his lack of control and K’s show that his 4.30ERA isn’t for real.  A good breaking pitch could make him an above-average starter, but there are a lot of relievers out there you could say the same thing about.
Verdict: Sell, if you’ve got an interested buyer.

Anybody I missed that you’d like to talk about?  This is an area where you can do really well with pitchers if you make some smart risks.  Next time we’ll look at how some post-hype hitters are doing, so email me if you’ve got any questions, comments, or suggestions.

We start to enter trade talk time so keeping an eye on guys changing leagues or getting full time spots will be my target now. As always I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP) I will include their current availability, which may have changed, since my initial review.

C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia – He is in for starting duties while Laird is out and if he can start to put things together he may keep them whether it is C or DH he should continue from this point to play 5-6 days a week.

He is owned in 50% of CBS leagues.

CI – Chris Davis- This falls under possible trade or call up moves.  He is not up yet, but pushing hard and playing well.  He has 30 homer potential so keep a close eye for openings in Texas.

He is only owned in 4% of CBS leagues.

MI – Jeff Keppinger – He is back from his injury and is a must add if you are in need of BA help in mixed leagues.  He lacks in power and the OBP will drop due to a lack in BB’s, but he should hit over .300 and get enough runs and RBI’s to be of use at SS or MI.

He is only owned in 33% of CBS leagues.

OF – David Dejesus – Another one trick pony in OBP, but has enough runs and RBI’s to be useful.  The surprise here is the added power this season.  He is on pace for 17 homers this year which would be a career high and give him bench status on most rosters.  He is a good fill in and can steal around 10 bases too.

He is only owned in 48% of CBS leagues.

SP – Gil Meche – I am surprised to see him dropped so much as he was never an ace even last year.  He will have an ERA around 4 to end the year and a few wins, although limited in KC.  I would carry him as my 4th or 5th starter.

He is owned in 33% of leagues.

Heading into the 2007 fantasy baseball season, three catchers, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, sat atop the positional draft lists on just about everyone’s draft board.

Before this season the argument over who should be the top catcher drafted was fought between McCann and Russell Martin.

As it stands right now, almost half-way through the season, and with apologies to Martinez, Mauer, Martin, youngster Geovany Soto, and upstart Ryan Doumit, Brian McCann is, without a doubt, the best fantasy catcher in baseball.

McCann leads all catchers in home runs. He’s second in runs batted in and slugging percentage. He’s ranked third in runs scored and is one of only three catchers with 200 at-bats or more to be hitting over .300.

It’s not just McCann’s 72-game stat line of .306/.379/.562 with 35 runs, 14 home runs, 44 RBI, and a stolen base that causes me to make this claim of McCann’s superiority. McCann is also striking out less, (12.8% in ‘08 versus 14.7% in ‘07) walking more, (9.8% in ‘08 versus 6.5% in ‘07) and doing it all with a relatively normal hit rate of 30.8%.

McCann’s numbers seem real, and they’re here to stay. And so is his dominance over the fantasy catcher category for years to come. Did I mention that McCann is only 23-years-old.

For everyone who reads my weekly post here at Crooked Pitch I have moved to a new domain. You can find my daily updates at RotoSavants.com. As always I will try to supply one from each of the following positions at my weekly review here on Crooked Pitch (C, CI, MI, OF, SP and RP) I will include there current availability which may have changed since my initial review.

C - Jeff Clement - I hope he gets full time at bats, because he has top 5 potential at the catcher position. I don’t think he will take to much time from Kenji, but he could get more at DH to get maybe 4-5 days a week. He is owned in 20% of CBS leagues

CI - Andy LaRoche- How long have we been waiting for this. He still isn’t getting full time at bats, but DeWitt doesn’t have his power and should be back in the minors soon enough. He is also getting starts at 1B which will be helpful with multiple eligibility. He is only owned in 18% of CBS leagues.

MI - Mike Aviles - He is slugging way to much right now, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have good pop. Being a SS and MI should get him owned in most deep leagues. For those still playing a Betancourt type SS for average you should get Aviles as his average is good and he has more pop. He is only owned in 25% of CBS leagues.

OF - Chase Headley - I’m not expecting him to start of like a Jay Bruce and his ownership will likely stay low for a week or so. He is not OF eligible yet, but he is starting there and should have eligibility soon. He will help in most leagues, but at about 300+ AB’s possible remaining this season he will likely hit about 10 homers for the remainder of the season. He is only owned in 47% of CBS leagues.

SP - Charlie Morton - Before AAA he had never pitched like this, but he had thrown 79 innings of great pitching. He then had a good start against the Angels. I would expect several hiccups in his work, but pitching in Atlanta he couls be worth a shot as they know pitching. He is owned in 26% of leagues.

RP - Mike Gonzalez - I know I recommended him last week, but since then he has been activated and hinted that he will close full time. He has already proved his health in his rehab starts so don’t worry about that. He should still strikeout enough batters to be an above average closer. He is only owned in 23% as of this morning on CBS.